Today I am introducing 5 day moving average charts for the change in total and daily cases for Canada and the USA. It will help see the overall trend in the rate of new infections.
Here is chart for Canada:
While the change in daily cases has been more volatile than the change in total cases, both appear to be declining which is a good sign.
For April 5, 2020, in Canada:
The growth rate in total new cases continues to slow. There was a jump in daily new cases but yesterday, we witnesses a 25% decrease from the day before so there may be some problems with the way data is being reported to the CDC.
As for the USA, here is the 5 Day Moving average chart:
The US data clearly shows a decline in the growth of total and daily cases. One risk with the USA, is that all 50 states have varying degrees of lock down so while states with larger populations like California may see declining growth in new cases, there is risk that other states, with less strict policies, will start to grow their number of cases.
The USA appears to be improving daily. Yesterday total cases grew by “only” 12.3%, below historical averages, and daily cases grew 5.7%, well below historical averages.
Globally, total case growth was below average today, but daily growth in new cases grew 6.6%. Similar to the USA, the risk globally is that countries that caught the virus early and are now seeing improvements in daily cases, may be offset by countries at earlier stages of infection.